Más allá del clientelismo y la técnica: la distribución política del presupuesto gubernamental en Colombia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18046/recs.i35.4745Palavras-chave:
presupuesto del Estado, congreso, presidencialismo, política distributiva, ColombiaResumo
En este artículo examinamos la distribución presupuestal por el ejecutivo central en un régimen presidencialista desde la literatura sobre la distribución táctica. Nuestro objetivo es evaluar empíricamente teorías existentes sobre la racionalidad política de este fenómeno. Iniciamos con una revisión de la literatura comparada, con énfasis en la distribución orientada hacia votantes y miembros del legislativo. Derivamos tres hipótesis que capturan tres modelos teóricos distintos: distribución técnica, distribución hacia votantes y distribución hacia el legislativo. Posteriormente, analizamos una base de datos original sobre la distribución de cupos indicativos presupuestales en Colombia durante el primer gobierno del presidente Juan Manuel Santos (2010-2014). Mediante un análisis de regresión, mostramos que los incrementos en el grado de representación en el congreso se asocian positivamente con el monto de las asignaciones presupuestales. Este hallazgo da soporte empírico a teorías sobre la política distributiva no programática orientada al legislativo.
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